Denbigh Town 2-5 Gresford Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 19 Mar 2024

📅19/03/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.43
Draw
17%
4.62
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
26%
3.17
Over 2.5
74%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%
1.46
No
32%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
25%
4-5 Goals
41%
6+ Goals
18%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
6%
2/1
11%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
65%
-6.9pp
17%
Draw
18%
-1.8pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.8pp
26%
Under 2.5
28%
-1.8pp
74%
Over 2.5
72%
+1.8pp
68%
BTTS Yes
64%
+3.6pp
32%
BTTS No
36%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Denbigh Town EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Gresford Athletic EU Bookmakers 20%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
3.67/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.63
+64% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +34%
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
427 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Denbigh Town
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Gresford Athletic
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
28.10.2023 Gresford Athletic Gresford Athletic 1-2 HT 1-2 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town GALFAW
22.07.2022 Denbigh Town Denbigh Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Gresford Athletic Gresford Athletic GALLK
POST-MATCH Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gresford Athletic cruised past Denbigh Town 5-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Denbigh Town at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (74%), both teams to score (68%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Denbigh Town and 1.00 for Gresford Athletic.

What was the final score of Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic?

Denbigh Town 2-5 Gresford Athletic in the Wales - FAW Championship on 19/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Denbigh Town vs Gresford Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Denbigh Town win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Denbigh Town 58%, draw 17%, Gresford Athletic 25%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Denbigh Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Denbigh Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GALFAW More Wales - FAW Championship
19 Mar 2024
22:30 Guilsfield vs Caersws Analysis →
22:30 Holywell vs Prestatyn Town Analysis →
22:30 Briton Ferry vs Afan Lido Analysis →