Miami FC 4-1 Naples Utd — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 19 Mar 2025

📅19/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.57
Draw
17%
4.08
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
10%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
60%
-0.8pp
17%
Draw
21%
-4.5pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+5.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.6pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Naples Utd EU Bookmakers 22%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
412 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
4-1
AWAY Naples Utd
3.46 xG 0.51
73% Ball Possession 27%
19 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
506 Passes 147
84% Pass Accuracy 65%
40 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Naples Utd
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Miami FC ran out comfortable winners over Naples Utd 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Miami FC as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Miami FC had 73% of the ball to Naples Utd's 27%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 3.46 to 0.51.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Naples Utd?

Miami FC 4-1 Naples Utd in the USA - Open Cup on 19/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Naples Utd?

Before kick-off our model rated a Miami FC win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 59%, draw 17%, Naples Utd 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Miami FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Miami FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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