Sarasota Paradise 1-2 Naples — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 19 Mar 2025

📅19/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.65
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
53%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.91
Over 2.5
41%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.88
No
60%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
18%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
31%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+2.6pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
53%
Away Win
58%
-5.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.5pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sarasota Paradise EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Naples EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 436 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sarasota Paradise
1-2
AWAY Naples
1.75 xG 1.38
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
155 Passes 383
61% Pass Accuracy 81%
11 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sarasota Paradise vs Naples
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naples squeezed past Sarasota Paradise 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Naples as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sarasota Paradise had 36% of the ball to Naples's 64%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.75 to 1.38.

What was the final score of Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?

Sarasota Paradise 1-2 Naples in the USA - Open Cup on 19/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sarasota Paradise vs Naples?

Before kick-off our model rated an Naples win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sarasota Paradise 21%, draw 26%, Naples 53%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naples) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Naples) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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