Toluca 4-0 San Diego — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 19 Mar 2026

📅19/03/2026 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
64%
1.28
Draw
16%
5.71
Away
20%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
37%
2.96
Over
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
36%
4-5
28%
6+
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Toluca win — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
74%
-10.3pp
16%
Draw
15%
+1.5pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+8.9pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.4pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+2.2pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY San Diego EU Bookmakers 14%
-60% / -60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.71/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/2.51
-39% / -74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
415 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 80%
33.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
13.5 Crosses 5.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
0W-0D-1L
AWAY San Diego
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
3.25 xG 1.32
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 0
481 Passes 204
85% Pass Accuracy 69%
35 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.03.2026 San Diego San Diego 3-2 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca CON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
4-0
AWAY San Diego
4.43 xG 0.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
27 Total Shots 5
12 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 5
401 Passes 276
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
37 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toluca vs San Diego
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca ran out comfortable winners over San Diego 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (63%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, Toluca had 56% of the ball to San Diego's 44%, shots finished 27-5, expected goals 4.43 to 0.50.

What was the final score of Toluca vs San Diego?

Toluca 4-0 San Diego in the CONCACAF Champions League on 19/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs San Diego?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Toluca 64%, draw 16%, San Diego 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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