Barcelona SC 1-0 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.45
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
65%
-10.2pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.0pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona SC EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.63/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.73
+10% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +80% / -2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 202 · 71%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
17.1 Crosses 16.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 4.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona SC
1W-3D-2L
AWAY El Nacional
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.44 xG 1.43
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
287 Passes 158
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
28 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.11.2023 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 3-2 HT 1-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
29.05.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 4-1 HT 2-1 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
03.07.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 2-1 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKVK
16.11.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
04.10.2020 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 0-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
26.09.2019 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 0-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona SC
1-0
AWAY El Nacional
1.08 xG 0.24
69% Ball Possession 31%
8 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
333 Passes 108
81% Pass Accuracy 58%
11 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Barcelona SC vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona SC edged past El Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Barcelona SC as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Barcelona SC had 69% of the ball to El Nacional's 31%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 1.08 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Barcelona SC and 1.50 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Barcelona SC vs El Nacional?

Barcelona SC 1-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona SC vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona SC win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Barcelona SC 54%, draw 24%, El Nacional 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona SC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona SC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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