Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 19 Apr 2024

Independiente Del Valle
2-1 HT 2-0
Mushuc Runa
📅19/04/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.43
Draw
29%
4.49
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.38
Over 2.5
46%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
65%
-12.0pp
28%
Draw
19%
+9.5pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente Del Valle v Mushuc Runa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -15%
1.72/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.71
-10% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -12%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
416 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 74%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
19.3 Crosses 16.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.29 xG 0.60
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
431 Passes 200
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 7
26 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.08.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.02.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-1 HT 2-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
03.11.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKVK
17.10.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
23.05.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 0-1 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
07.08.2021 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1

Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Mushuc Runa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
2-1
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.80 xG 0.45
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
398 Passes 272
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 9
9 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle squeezed past Mushuc Runa 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 57% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 43%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.80 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente Del Valle's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 0.67 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa?

Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 53%, draw 28%, Mushuc Runa 18%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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