Polonia Warszawa 3-3 Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 19 Apr 2024

📅19/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.18
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.69
6+ Goals
8%
15.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-6.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+7.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Sosnowiec EU Bookmakers 30%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.00/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.48
-33% / +111% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Warszawa
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 0
08.10.2023 Zaglebie Sosnowiec Zaglebie Sosnowiec 0-2 HT 0-0 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Warszawa
3-3
AWAY Zaglebie Sosnowiec
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Polonia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa and Zaglebie Sosnowiec shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Polonia Warszawa at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Polonia Warszawa had 57% of the ball to Zaglebie Sosnowiec's 43%, shots finished 12-15.

What was the final score of Polonia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

Polonia Warszawa 3-3 Zaglebie Sosnowiec in the Poland - 1st Division on 19/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonia Warszawa win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Polonia Warszawa 41%, draw 25%, Zaglebie Sosnowiec 34%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) ✓ BTTS Yes
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