Paris FC 1-0 Bastia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.68
Over
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.73
2-3
42%
1.76
4-5
19%
4.12
6+
10%
19.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.97
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.71
X/2
11%
7.09
X/X
14%
4.29
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
12%
5.56
2/X
6%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paris FC EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Bastia EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
1.49/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.23
+11% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
382 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
18.1 Crosses 14.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paris FC
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bastia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.09 xG 1.17
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
411 Passes 278
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.09.2024 Bastia Bastia 2-1 HT 2-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
17.05.2024 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 1-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
11.11.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
18.03.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
05.11.2022 Bastia Bastia 0-1 HT 0-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
22.04.2022 Bastia Bastia 2-1 HT 2-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paris FC
1-0
AWAY Bastia
0.90 xG 0.79
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
326 Passes 325
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Paris FC vs Bastia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paris FC edged past Bastia 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day Paris FC made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Paris FC had 51% of the ball to Bastia's 49%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.90 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Paris FC and 1.00 for Bastia.

What was the final score of Paris FC vs Bastia?

Paris FC 1-0 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paris FC vs Bastia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paris FC win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Paris FC 40%, draw 29%, Bastia 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paris FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paris FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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