Bastia 1-1 Paris FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 17 May 2024

Bastia
1-1 HT 1-1
Paris FC
📅17/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Bastia vs Paris FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.32
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
45%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.91
Over 2.5
42%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.35
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.53
6+ Goals
7%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 29% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.75
1/2
7%
23.15
1/X
8%
15.85
X/1
6%
7.5
X/2
21%
4.04
X/X
15%
5.3
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.49
2/X
6%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
26%
-0.6pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.5pp
45%
Away Win
50%
-4.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
48%
+10.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
52%
-10.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bastia v Paris FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bastia EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Paris FC EU Bookmakers 55%
+13% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
0.75/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.13
-11% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 82%
13.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
18.5 Crosses 17.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5

Bastia vs Paris FC Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bastia
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Paris FC
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.80 xG 1.43
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
298 Passes 398
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 1-0 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
18.03.2023 Paris FC Paris FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
05.11.2022 Bastia Bastia 0-1 HT 0-1 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
22.04.2022 Bastia Bastia 2-1 HT 2-0 Paris FC Paris FC FR2
03.12.2021 Paris FC Paris FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Bastia Bastia FR2

Bastia 1-1 Paris FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bastia
1-1
AWAY Paris FC
2.52 xG 0.36
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
286 Passes 454
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bastia vs Paris FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia and Paris FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Paris FC at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Bastia had 40% of the ball to Paris FC's 60%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 2.52 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Paris FC led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Bastia and 0.80 for Paris FC.

What was the final score of Bastia vs Paris FC?

Bastia 1-1 Paris FC in the France - Ligue 2 on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bastia vs Paris FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paris FC win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Bastia 26%, draw 29%, Paris FC 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Paris FC), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paris FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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