Quevilly 2-1 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
4.13
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
58%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.59
Over 2.5
51%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.5
No
52%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.84
2-3 Goals
42%
2.05
4-5 Goals
23%
2.6
6+ Goals
8%
5.94
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.84 — our 27% vs market 12.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.98
1/2
7%
19.5
1/X
4%
14.65
X/1
3%
10.7
X/2
16%
4.24
X/X
15%
6.62
2/1
3%
34.5
2/2
34%
1.98
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
21%
-3.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.4pp
58%
Away Win
57%
+0.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
35%
+14.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
65%
-14.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
62%
-14.4pp
52%
BTTS No
38%
+14.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Quevilly EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 62%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.06/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.45
+11% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% /
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 82%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
16.3 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Quevilly
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.37 xG 1.46
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
267 Passes 372
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
19.08.2023 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-1 HT 2-0 Quevilly Quevilly FR2
20.05.2023 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 4-2 HT 1-1 Quevilly Quevilly FR2
15.08.2022 Quevilly Quevilly 2-2 HT 2-2 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Quevilly
2-1
AWAY Saint-Etienne
1.58 xG 2.78
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 28
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
322 Passes 359
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 48
10 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Quevilly vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Quevilly squeezed past Saint-Etienne 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Saint-Etienne carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Quevilly had 47% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 53%, shots finished 11-28, expected goals 1.58 to 2.78 — on chances, Saint-Etienne could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Saint-Etienne led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Quevilly and 2.67 for Saint-Etienne.

What was the final score of Quevilly vs Saint-Etienne?

Quevilly 2-1 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 2 on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Quevilly vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Quevilly 17%, draw 25%, Saint-Etienne 58%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Saint-Etienne), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saint-Etienne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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