Auxerre 4-1 Concarneau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.96
Over 2.5
51%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.53
No
54%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
7.28
2-3 Goals
39%
2.22
4-5 Goals
26%
2.44
6+ Goals
11%
4.64
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 7.28 — our 24% vs market 9.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.65
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
9%
18.1
X/1
16%
3.9
X/2
6%
14.6
X/X
10%
8.58
2/1
6%
18.05
2/2
9%
9.35
2/X
4%
17.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-7.5pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.7pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
30%
+18.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
70%
-18.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
61%
-15.0pp
54%
BTTS No
39%
+15.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Concarneau EU Bookmakers 19%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.48/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.53
+11% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +31%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
25.4 Crosses 12.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Concarneau
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.27 xG 0.57
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
472 Passes 471
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
34 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 1
05.12.2023 Concarneau Concarneau 1-2 HT 0-2 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
4-1
AWAY Concarneau
3.39 xG 0.97
58% Ball Possession 42%
21 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
523 Passes 366
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
62 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Concarneau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre ran out comfortable winners over Concarneau 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Auxerre as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Auxerre had 58% of the ball to Concarneau's 42%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 3.39 to 0.97.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Concarneau?

Auxerre 4-1 Concarneau in the France - Ligue 2 on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Concarneau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 58%, draw 23%, Concarneau 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auxerre), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auxerre) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR2 More France - Ligue 2
17 May 2024
21:45 Angers vs Dunkerque Analysis →
21:45 Quevilly vs Saint-Etienne Analysis →
21:45 Grenoble vs Amiens SC Analysis →
21:45 Caen vs Valenciennes Analysis →
21:45 Troyes vs Annecy Analysis →
21:45 Bastia vs Paris FC Analysis →