Caen 3-0 Valenciennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 17 May 2024

Caen
3-0 HT 1-0
Valenciennes
📅17/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2023/2024

Caen vs Valenciennes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.33
Over 2.5
46%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.76
No
57%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.87
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
21%
2.8
6+ Goals
10%
7.51
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.87 — our 31% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
18.5
X/1
19%
3.66
X/2
8%
15.05
X/X
10%
7.11
2/1
7%
21.0
2/2
6%
11.2
2/X
6%
18.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-9.3pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.7pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
39%
+14.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
61%
-14.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.1pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caen v Valenciennes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.36/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.40
-27% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
423 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
22.2 Crosses 12.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Caen vs Valenciennes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caen
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Valenciennes
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.17 xG 1.01
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 Passes 265
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Valenciennes Valenciennes 2-2 HT 2-0 Caen Caen FR2
18.03.2023 Caen Caen 2-1 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
05.11.2022 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-1 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
15.03.2022 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-1 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
02.10.2021 Caen Caen 1-2 HT 0-2 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
02.02.2021 Caen Caen 1-1 HT 0-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2

Caen 3-0 Valenciennes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caen
3-0
AWAY Valenciennes
3.14 xG 0.93
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
345 Passes 339
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 29
23 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Caen vs Valenciennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caen cruised past Valenciennes 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Caen as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Caen had 51% of the ball to Valenciennes's 49%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 3.14 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Caen and 1.33 for Valenciennes.

What was the final score of Caen vs Valenciennes?

Caen 3-0 Valenciennes in the France - Ligue 2 on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caen vs Valenciennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caen win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Caen 57%, draw 24%, Valenciennes 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caen), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caen) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR2 More France - Ligue 2
17 May 2024
21:45 Angers vs Dunkerque Analysis →
21:45 Quevilly vs Saint-Etienne Analysis →
21:45 Grenoble vs Amiens SC Analysis →
21:45 Troyes vs Annecy Analysis →
21:45 Bastia vs Paris FC Analysis →
21:45 Auxerre vs Concarneau Analysis →