Heerenveen 2-1 Almere City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.18
Over 2.5
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.38
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
21%
4.66
X/2
10%
8.63
X/X
12%
5.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.4
2/2
12%
6.17
2/X
6%
14.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-4.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.7pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Almere City EU Bookmakers 28%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.77/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.31
-15% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / +150%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
393 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
21.8 Crosses 15.5
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Almere City
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
2.20 xG 1.25
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
385 Passes 249
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2024 Almere City Almere City 3-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
03.05.2024 Almere City Almere City 1-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
01.12.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-0 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
21.07.2015 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
2-1
AWAY Almere City
1.27 xG 0.93
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
366 Passes 289
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs Almere City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen squeezed past Almere City 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Heerenveen as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Heerenveen had 54% of the ball to Almere City's 46%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.27 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Heerenveen and 1.25 for Almere City.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Almere City?

Heerenveen 2-1 Almere City in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Almere City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 48%, draw 23%, Almere City 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heerenveen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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