Almere City 3-0 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.87
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.81
6+ Goals
12%
17.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.81 — our 26% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.26
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
13%
5.9
X/2
10%
5.12
X/X
16%
4.37
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
18%
3.5
2/X
7%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.5pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 43%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.25/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.47
-8% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
300 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 78%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
19.8 Crosses 18.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Heerenveen
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.34 xG 2.66
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
261 Passes 331
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
03.05.2024 Almere City Almere City 1-1 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
01.12.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-0 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
21.07.2015 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
3-0
AWAY Heerenveen
1.08 xG 1.28
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
225 Passes 492
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Almere City vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almere City ran out comfortable winners over Heerenveen 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Almere City made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Almere City had 36% of the ball to Heerenveen's 64%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.08 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Heerenveen led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Almere City and 1.67 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of Almere City vs Heerenveen?

Almere City 3-0 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almere City win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Almere City 35%, draw 30%, Heerenveen 35%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ BTTS Yes
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