Go Ahead Eagles 2-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Dec 2024

Go Ahead Eagles
2-1 HT 0-1
NAC Breda
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Go Ahead Eagles vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.15
Over 2.5
45%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.94
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.08 — our 25% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.93
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
16.35
X/1
11%
3.84
X/2
9%
11.65
X/X EV+ ✗
19%
6.17
2/1
9%
21.6
2/2
8%
8.81
2/X
5%
17.0
Value flag · X/X at 6.17 — our 19% vs market 12.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.3pp
29%
Draw
22%
+6.8pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+4.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.6pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Go Ahead Eagles v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Go Ahead Eagles EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 21%
+10% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
2.39/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.81
+24% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
400 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
18.6 Crosses 14.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Go Ahead Eagles vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Go Ahead Eagles
4W-2D-0L
AWAY NAC Breda
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.98 xG 0.62
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 Passes 283
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 12
17 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.04.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-1 HT 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL2
11.12.2020 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 0-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
26.10.2020 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 6-0 HT 5-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOK
26.01.2020 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 1-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
01.11.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL2
29.04.2016 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 4-1 HT 2-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2

Go Ahead Eagles 2-1 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Go Ahead Eagles
2-1
AWAY NAC Breda
2.98 xG 1.21
51% Ball Possession 49%
28 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 7
267 Passes 275
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
39 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Go Ahead Eagles vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Go Ahead Eagles squeezed past NAC Breda 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Go Ahead Eagles as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Go Ahead Eagles had 51% of the ball to NAC Breda's 49%, shots finished 28-13, expected goals 2.98 to 1.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Go Ahead Eagles's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Go Ahead Eagles had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Go Ahead Eagles and 0.33 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Go Ahead Eagles vs NAC Breda?

Go Ahead Eagles 2-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Go Ahead Eagles vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Go Ahead Eagles win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Go Ahead Eagles 50%, draw 29%, NAC Breda 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Go Ahead Eagles) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Go Ahead Eagles) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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