AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.23
6+ Goals
12%
11.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.77
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.3
X/1
18%
4.83
X/2
15%
7.71
X/X
11%
4.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.0
2/2
11%
5.41
2/X
6%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.8pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente EU Bookmakers 30%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.22/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.33
+12% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +16%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
12.7 Crosses 16.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Twente
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.18
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
391 Passes 347
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 0-1 Twente Twente HOL
13.01.2024 Twente Twente 2-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
19.03.2023 Twente Twente 2-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
11.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
13.03.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-1 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
19.01.2022 Twente Twente 1-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-0
AWAY Twente
1.32 xG 0.39
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
346 Passes 454
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar squeezed past Twente 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AZ Alkmaar as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 45% of the ball to Twente's 55%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 1.32 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.33 for Twente.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Twente in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 43%, draw 26%, Twente 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
21 Dec 2024
00:00 Heracles vs Groningen Analysis →
18:30 Go Ahead Eagles vs NAC Breda Analysis →
20:45 Almere City vs Heerenveen Analysis →