AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.18
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.69
6+ Goals
11%
15.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.03
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
16%
4.71
X/2
13%
6.48
X/X
13%
4.58
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
18%
4.73
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.75
Value flag · 2/X at 13.75 — our 10% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
44%
-9.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +1%
1.17/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.34
+9% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
349 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 73%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
13.2 Crosses 16.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Twente
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.04 xG 1.08
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
405 Passes 341
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.01.2024 Twente Twente 2-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
19.03.2023 Twente Twente 2-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
11.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
13.03.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-1 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
19.01.2022 Twente Twente 1-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK
23.09.2021 Twente Twente 3-1 HT 2-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2-1
AWAY Twente
1.45 xG 1.87
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 11
347 Passes 323
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 35
10 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar nicked a narrow win over Twente 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 37%) promised a tight game; AZ Alkmaar found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 50% of the ball to Twente's 50%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.45 to 1.87 — on chances, Twente could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.67 for Twente.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?

AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Twente in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Twente win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 35%, draw 29%, Twente 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Twente) ✗ Under 2.5
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