TransMara Sugar 1-1 KCB Nairobi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
32%
2.83
Away
29%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.54
Over 2.5
34%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.3pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-5.7pp
66%
Under 2.5
61%
+5.4pp
34%
Over 2.5
39%
-5.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.4pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY KCB Nairobi EU Bookmakers 38%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.40/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.04
+64% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME TransMara Sugar
0W-0D-1L
AWAY KCB Nairobi
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
21.12.2024 KCB Nairobi KCB Nairobi 4-3 HT 2-1 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar KEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME TransMara Sugar
1-1
AWAY KCB Nairobi
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH TransMara Sugar vs KCB Nairobi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TransMara Sugar and KCB Nairobi shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 29% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (66%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, TransMara Sugar had 60% of the ball to KCB Nairobi's 40%, shots finished 11-11.

What was the final score of TransMara Sugar vs KCB Nairobi?

TransMara Sugar 1-1 KCB Nairobi in the Kenya - Premier League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TransMara Sugar vs KCB Nairobi?

Before kick-off our model rated a TransMara Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split TransMara Sugar 39%, draw 32%, KCB Nairobi 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (TransMara Sugar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (TransMara Sugar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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