Sofapaka 1-1 Gor Mahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 19 Apr 2025

Sofapaka
1-1 HT 0-0
Gor Mahia
📅19/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2024/2025

Sofapaka vs Gor Mahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.32
Draw
35%
2.88
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
Over 2.5
35%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.29
No
53%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
26%
-1.4pp
35%
Draw
31%
+4.0pp
40%
Away Win
43%
-2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+7.8pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sofapaka v Gor Mahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sofapaka EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Gor Mahia EU Bookmakers 48%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.78/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/0.71
-17% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +14%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
243 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.6 Yellow Cards 0.4

Sofapaka vs Gor Mahia Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sofapaka
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Gor Mahia
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
44% Ball Possession 56%
5 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.01.2025 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 2-0 HT 1-0 Sofapaka Sofapaka KEN
16.06.2024 Sofapaka Sofapaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN
09.03.2022 Sofapaka Sofapaka 1-1 HT 1-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN2
30.10.2021 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Sofapaka Sofapaka KEN2
POST-MATCH Sofapaka vs Gor Mahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sofapaka and Gor Mahia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 25% / 35% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gor Mahia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Sofapaka and 1.25 for Gor Mahia.

What was the final score of Sofapaka vs Gor Mahia?

Sofapaka 1-1 Gor Mahia in the Kenya - Premier League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sofapaka vs Gor Mahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gor Mahia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sofapaka 25%, draw 35%, Gor Mahia 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gor Mahia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gor Mahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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