Smiltene 1-2 Marupe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 19 Apr 2025

Smiltene
1-2
Marupe
📅19/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2026

Smiltene vs Marupe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.08
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
53%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.15
Over 2.5
64%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
19%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
29%
-2.5pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.9pp
53%
Away Win
49%
+4.4pp
36%
Under 2.5
43%
-6.9pp
64%
Over 2.5
57%
+6.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Smiltene v Marupe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Marupe EU Bookmakers 53%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.13/2.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.50
-91% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +79%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
226 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Smiltene vs Marupe Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Marupe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
The Meetings
06.10.2024 Marupe Marupe 0-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
15.06.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-1 HT 0-0 Marupe Marupe LET1
11.06.2022 Marupe Marupe 3-3 HT 1-2 Smiltene Smiltene LETK
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs Marupe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marupe nicked a narrow win over Smiltene 2-1 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Marupe as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Marupe led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Smiltene and 1.33 for Marupe.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs Marupe?

Smiltene 1-2 Marupe in the Latvia - 1st Division on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Marupe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marupe win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 26%, draw 21%, Marupe 53%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marupe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marupe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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