Leones Negros Udeg 3-1 Venados — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
22%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.18
Over 2.5
58%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
33%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
53%
+1.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-1.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
42%
-0.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
58%
+0.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.3pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Venados EU Bookmakers 27%
+17% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
2.22/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.49
+25% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
421 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Venados
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
4 Corners 6
02.11.2024 Venados Venados 3-0 HT 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
25.01.2024 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
18.08.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 4-1 HT 2-0 Venados Venados MEK2
05.04.2023 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
29.10.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-0 HT 2-0 Venados Venados MEK2
26.10.2022 Venados Venados 2-0 HT 1-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs Venados
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg got the better of Venados 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Leones Negros Udeg as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 1.33 for Venados.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs Venados?

Leones Negros Udeg 3-1 Venados in the Mexico - Primera A on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs Venados?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 54%, draw 24%, Venados 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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