Puebla 0-1 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.46
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
43%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+8.8pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
43%
Away Win
49%
-5.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 53%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-2% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
302 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 82%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.2 Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Necaxa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.51 xG 1.48
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
321 Passes 266
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.07.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 4-1 HT 2-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
20.01.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
09.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 0-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
15.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
17.08.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
23.04.2022 Puebla Puebla 0-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
0-1
AWAY Necaxa
0.44 xG 1.08
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
260 Passes 344
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa edged past Puebla 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Puebla had 46% of the ball to Necaxa's 54%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 0.44 to 1.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Puebla and 1.83 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Necaxa?

Puebla 0-1 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Puebla 34%, draw 22%, Necaxa 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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