Necaxa 4-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.02
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.02 — our 27% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -1%
1.28/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.49
-12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
341 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 78%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.9 Crosses 17.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Puebla
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.28 xG 1.59
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
277 Passes 297
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.01.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
09.10.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-2 HT 0-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
15.04.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
17.08.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
23.04.2022 Puebla Puebla 0-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
16.10.2021 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
4-1
AWAY Puebla
2.47 xG 0.95
46% Ball Possession 54%
24 Total Shots 17
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
295 Passes 349
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
28 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa cruised past Puebla 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Necaxa had 46% of the ball to Puebla's 54%, shots finished 24-17, expected goals 2.47 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Necaxa and 1.17 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Puebla?

Necaxa 4-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 45%, draw 28%, Puebla 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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