Monterrey 0-4 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.82
Over 2.5
39%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.73
No
60%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
3.27
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.6
6+ Goals
8%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.27 — our 36% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.5pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
51%
+9.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
49%
-9.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
54%
-13.5pp
60%
BTTS No
46%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -3%
1.30/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.42
-22% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +31%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
282 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
20.4 Crosses 15.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.34 xG 1.37
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
380 Passes 310
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.05.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
17.05.2024 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
07.04.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
28.08.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 1-2 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
15.01.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-3 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
16.10.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 3-0 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
0-4
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.40 xG 1.91
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 15
0 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 3
352 Passes 443
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul cruised past Monterrey 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Monterrey at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Monterrey had 46% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 54%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.40 to 1.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Monterrey and 1.33 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?

Monterrey 0-4 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 42%, draw 25%, Cruz Azul 32%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Monterrey), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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