Santos Laguna 1-1 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒04:25 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.46
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
35%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.92
6+ Goals
8%
17.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 31% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
26%
+11.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
35%
Away Win
47%
-11.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.5pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 50%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.27/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.56
-19% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 81%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
19.7 Crosses 22.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos Laguna
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.94 xG 1.55
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
231 Passes 352
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.02.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-0 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
03.09.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 2-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
15.01.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
21.08.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-5 HT 0-3 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
03.03.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-2 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
05.11.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-3 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos Laguna
1-1
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.08 xG 2.65
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 28
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 11
296 Passes 305
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 40
12 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos Laguna and Pumas UNAM shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Santos Laguna had 49% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 51%, shots finished 9-28, expected goals 1.08 to 2.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos Laguna had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Santos Laguna and 1.17 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM?

Santos Laguna 1-1 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos Laguna win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Santos Laguna 37%, draw 28%, Pumas UNAM 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Santos Laguna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Santos Laguna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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