Porto II vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Porto II v Chaves — Team-Based Signals
Porto II vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Chaves
POR2
4-2
HT 0-2
Porto II
POR2
1-1
HT 1-1
Porto II
POR2
1-2
HT 1-1
Chaves
POR2
1-1
HT 0-0
Chaves
POR2
Porto II 1-2 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics
Chaves squeezed past Porto II 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 33% / 31% — and on the day Chaves made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Porto II had 52% of the ball to Chaves's 48%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 0.88 to 0.41 — the balance of chances actually favoured Porto II.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Porto II and 1.67 for Chaves.
What was the final score of Porto II vs Chaves?
Porto II 1-2 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Porto II vs Chaves?
Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Porto II 36%, draw 33%, Chaves 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.