Penafiel vs CD Feirense Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v CD Feirense — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs CD Feirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
2-1
HT 1-0
Penafiel
POR2
0-1
HT 0-0
CD Feirense
POR2
2-0
HT 1-0
CD Feirense
POR2
Penafiel 1-2 CD Feirense — Actual Match Statistics
CD Feirense nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 2-1 away from home.
Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; CD Feirense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Penafiel had 46% of the ball to CD Feirense's 54%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 0.44 to 1.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold CD Feirense's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CD Feirense led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Penafiel and 1.50 for CD Feirense.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs CD Feirense?
Penafiel 1-2 CD Feirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs CD Feirense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 40%, draw 30%, CD Feirense 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.