Amarante 1-1 Dezembro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
33%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.62
Over
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
45%
4-5
16%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+8.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.1pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Dezembro EU Bookmakers 28%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.75/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.14
-45% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Dezembro
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2025 Dezembro Dezembro 2-1 HT 1-1 Amarante Amarante POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
1-1
AWAY Dezembro
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Dezembro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante and Dezembro shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Amarante at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Amarante had 42% of the ball to Dezembro's 58%, shots finished 10-14.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Dezembro?

Amarante 1-1 Dezembro in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Dezembro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amarante win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Amarante 43%, draw 25%, Dezembro 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Amarante), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Amarante) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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