FK Orenburg 2-1 Makhachkala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
24%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.36
6+ Goals
9%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 28% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
4%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
44%
+1.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.7pp
24%
Away Win
29%
-5.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Makhachkala EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.67/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/0.88
-9% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
25.4 Crosses 12.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Makhachkala
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.48 xG 1.64
32% Ball Possession 68%
5 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 11
129 Passes 342
59% Pass Accuracy 78%
4 Box Touches 44
6 Crosses 46
6 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2024 Makhachkala Makhachkala 2-1 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
2-1
AWAY Makhachkala
1.16 xG 0.79
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
277 Passes 169
75% Pass Accuracy 63%
24 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Makhachkala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg edged past Makhachkala 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FK Orenburg as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 58% of the ball to Makhachkala's 42%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.16 to 0.79.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Makhachkala?

FK Orenburg 2-1 Makhachkala in the Russia - Premier League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Makhachkala?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 46%, draw 30%, Makhachkala 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Orenburg) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FK Orenburg)
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