Makhachkala 2-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 9 Nov 2024

📅09/11/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.66
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 35% vs market 33.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.54
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
13%
4.91
X/2
11%
5.78
X/X
16%
3.92
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
12%
4.45
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.5pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
31%
Away Win
31%
-0.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.1pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Makhachkala EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 34%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -11%
1.04/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.19
-63% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 75%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
14.1 Crosses 20.0
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Makhachkala
2-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.64 xG 0.48
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 1
342 Passes 129
78% Pass Accuracy 59%
44 Box Touches 4
46 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Makhachkala vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Makhachkala edged past FK Orenburg 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Makhachkala found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Makhachkala had 68% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 32%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 1.64 to 0.48.

What was the final score of Makhachkala vs FK Orenburg?

Makhachkala 2-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Makhachkala vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Makhachkala win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Makhachkala 40%, draw 29%, FK Orenburg 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Makhachkala) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Makhachkala) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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