Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 9 Nov 2024

Lokomotiv Moscow
2-1 HT 1-0
Fakel
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
24%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.13
No
50%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.47
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
27%
3.43
6+ Goals
9%
13.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
21.1
X/1
13%
3.35
X/2
10%
16.55
X/X
11%
6.14
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
8%
14.3
2/X
6%
22.3
Value flag · 1/X at 21.1 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
68%
-18.7pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.2pp
24%
Away Win
12%
+12.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
43%
+7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
57%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lokomotiv Moscow v Fakel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 15%
-4% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
2.10/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.75
-10% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
398 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 69%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
20.8 Crosses 13.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Fakel
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.23 xG 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
330 Passes 203
73% Pass Accuracy 62%
24 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.05.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
30.07.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
20.05.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
11.09.2022 Fakel Fakel 2-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS

Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 Fakel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
2-1
AWAY Fakel
3.02 xG 0.71
49% Ball Possession 51%
21 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
273 Passes 264
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
36 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow edged past Fakel 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 49% of the ball to Fakel's 51%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 3.02 to 0.71 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lokomotiv Moscow's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 0.75 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel?

Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 50%, draw 26%, Fakel 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5
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