Kasımpaşa 3-1 Sivasspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.21
Over Pick
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
27%
4.45
2-3
38%
1.9
4-5
22%
2.84
6+
13%
7.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.5
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
5%
12.9
X/1
19%
4.85
X/2
9%
8.25
X/X
16%
5.7
2/1
7%
21.3
2/2
12%
5.66
2/X
5%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.2pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Sivasspor EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.66/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.39
+1% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
335 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
24.4 Crosses 16.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kasımpaşa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sivasspor
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.19 xG 1.27
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
367 Passes 262
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Sivasspor Sivasspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
01.03.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-0 HT 0-0 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
22.10.2023 Sivasspor Sivasspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
16.05.2023 Sivasspor Sivasspor 1-2 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
24.12.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-2 HT 1-1 Sivasspor Sivasspor TSL
07.05.2022 Sivasspor Sivasspor 1-3 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kasımpaşa
3-1
AWAY Sivasspor
2.65 xG 1.62
51% Ball Possession 49%
22 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 4
361 Passes 352
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
41 Box Touches 11
27 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa got the better of Sivasspor 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kasımpaşa as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Kasımpaşa had 51% of the ball to Sivasspor's 49%, shots finished 22-6, expected goals 2.65 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kasımpaşa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.67 for Sivasspor.

What was the final score of Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?

Kasımpaşa 3-1 Sivasspor in the Turkey - Super League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kasımpaşa vs Sivasspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kasımpaşa win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Kasımpaşa 46%, draw 27%, Sivasspor 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kasımpaşa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kasımpaşa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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