Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 19 Apr 2026

Aston Villa
4-3 HT 2-1
Sunderland
📅19/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.05
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.25
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.75
X/1
20%
4.24
X/2
7%
9.23
X/X
12%
4.71
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
24.35
2/2
9%
7.52
2/X
7%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.35 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.4pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Sunderland — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
1.92/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.73
+7% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +30%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 72%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
18.8 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Aston Villa vs Sunderland Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sunderland
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.54 xG 0.48
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
411 Passes 299
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.09.2025 Sunderland Sunderland 1-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
06.03.2018 Sunderland Sunderland 0-3 HT 0-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNCL
21.11.2017 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 1-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
02.01.2016 Sunderland Sunderland 3-1 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
29.08.2015 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-2 HT 2-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
14.03.2015 Sunderland Sunderland 0-4 HT 0-4 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP

Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
4-3
AWAY Sunderland
2.84 xG 1.73
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
341 Passes 340
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa nicked a narrow win over Sunderland 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Aston Villa had 50% of the ball to Sunderland's 50%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.84 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Aston Villa and 1.17 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Aston Villa 4-3 Sunderland in the England - Premier League on 19/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 53%, draw 24%, Sunderland 23%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
19 Apr 2026
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