Motherwell 1-2 St. Johnstone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.95
Over 2.5
56%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.56
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.37
6+ Goals
11%
12.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.37 — our 25% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.06
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
12%
4.88
X/2
7%
6.35
X/X
11%
4.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
2/2
16%
4.42
2/X
7%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.3pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Johnstone EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +20%
1.49/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.96
+19% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
251 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 73%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
21.8 Crosses 17.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
1W-4D-1L
AWAY St. Johnstone
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.23 xG 1.01
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
268 Passes 226
69% Pass Accuracy 66%
16 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.01.2024 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 1-1 HT 1-1 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
09.12.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 0-0 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
07.11.2023 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 2-2 HT 2-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
13.05.2023 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 0-2 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
01.02.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 0-2 HT 0-1 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone İKP
12.11.2022 St. Johnstone St. Johnstone 1-1 HT 1-1 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
1-2
AWAY St. Johnstone
2.33 xG 1.82
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
400 Passes 181
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
28 Box Touches 19
33 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs St. Johnstone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Johnstone edged past Motherwell 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Motherwell at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Motherwell had 65% of the ball to St. Johnstone's 35%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 2.33 to 1.82 — on chances, Motherwell could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Motherwell and 1.17 for St. Johnstone.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs St. Johnstone?

Motherwell 1-2 St. Johnstone in the Scotland - Premiership on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs St. Johnstone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 45%, draw 24%, St. Johnstone 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Motherwell) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motherwell) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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