Hajduk Split 2-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
20%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
74%
-16.0pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.5pp
20%
Away Win
10%
+10.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 12%
-6% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.55/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.66
-12% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +12%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
23.0 Crosses 13.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
4W-1D-1L
AWAY HNK Gorica
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.65 xG 0.81
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
399 Passes 291
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-3 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
02.12.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
17.09.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
26.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
19.02.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
26.10.2022 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 3-1 HT 1-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
2-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.28 xG 0.54
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
439 Passes 330
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
29 Box Touches 8
25 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split edged past HNK Gorica 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Hajduk Split as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 56% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 44%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.28 to 0.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hajduk Split had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.67 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?

Hajduk Split 2-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 59%, draw 22%, HNK Gorica 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hajduk Split), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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