FS Jelgava 1-5 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 19 May 2024

📅19/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
9.57
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
57%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.4
No
58%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
22%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
7%
+13.8pp
21%
Draw
14%
+7.5pp
57%
Away Win
79%
-21.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
38%
+4.3pp
58%
BTTS No
62%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 84%
+9% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -20%
0.87/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.90/0.71
-33% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +46%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
248 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 78%
15.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 49.7
14.0 Crosses 33.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Riga FC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.65 xG 3.13
35% Ball Possession 65%
5 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 10
169 Passes 469
58% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 53
9 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.04.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
01.09.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 3-5 HT 2-3 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
25.06.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-3 HT 1-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
04.05.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 1-3 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
12.03.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 2-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
17.10.2020 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-2 HT 0-1 Riga FC Riga FC LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
1-5
AWAY Riga FC
0.35 xG 4.60
28% Ball Possession 72%
8 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 3
222 Passes 694
74% Pass Accuracy 92%
3 Box Touches 36
8 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC swept aside FS Jelgava 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 28% of the ball to Riga FC's 72%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 0.35 to 4.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FS Jelgava and 2.50 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Riga FC?

FS Jelgava 1-5 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 21%, draw 21%, Riga FC 57%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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