Spartak Moskova 3-1 Rubin Kazan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 19 May 2024

Spartak Moskova
3-1 HT 2-0
Rubin Kazan
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Spartak Moskova vs Rubin Kazan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.0
Over 2.5
42%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.73
No
57%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.69
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
16%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.69 — our 32% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.3
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.45
X/1
18%
4.1
X/2
13%
8.66
X/X
10%
5.28
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2
7%
6.47
2/X
8%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
46%
+11.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
54%
-11.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
54%
-10.8pp
57%
BTTS No
46%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spartak Moskova v Rubin Kazan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rubin Kazan EU Bookmakers 26%
-10% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.49/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.29
-21% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
363 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.2 Crosses 14.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Spartak Moskova vs Rubin Kazan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Rubin Kazan
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.03 xG 1.10
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
342 Passes 234
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
28 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
05.08.2023 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 1-4 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
16.04.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-1 HT 0-1 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
24.07.2021 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 1-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
14.07.2021 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 0-4 HT 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova HAZ
28.02.2021 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 0-2 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
20.09.2020 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 0-2 HT 0-2 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS

Spartak Moskova 3-1 Rubin Kazan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
3-1
AWAY Rubin Kazan
0.61 xG 1.40
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
404 Passes 355
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 24
9 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Rubin Kazan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova beat Rubin Kazan 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Spartak Moskova as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 52% of the ball to Rubin Kazan's 48%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.61 to 1.40 — on chances, Rubin Kazan could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Spartak Moskova and 0.83 for Rubin Kazan.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Rubin Kazan?

Spartak Moskova 3-1 Rubin Kazan in the Russia - Premier League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Rubin Kazan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 45%, draw 26%, Rubin Kazan 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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