Rostov 2-1 Baltika Kaliningrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 19 May 2024

Rostov
2-1 HT 2-1
Baltika Kaliningrad
📅19/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Rostov vs Baltika Kaliningrad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.82
6+ Goals
11%
16.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 28% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.25
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
16%
4.91
X/2
13%
6.16
X/X
10%
4.4
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
16%
4.47
2/X
9%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+5.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rostov v Baltika Kaliningrad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rostov EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.64/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.04
+31% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
20.2 Crosses 19.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.6

Rostov vs Baltika Kaliningrad Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rostov
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.00 xG 0.52
57% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
274 Passes 248
67% Pass Accuracy 63%
21 Box Touches 15
5 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.05.2024 Rostov Rostov 0-1 HT 0-1 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad RUSK
16.09.2023 Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad 2-2 HT 0-2 Rostov Rostov RUS

Rostov 2-1 Baltika Kaliningrad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rostov
2-1
AWAY Baltika Kaliningrad
1.74 xG 0.96
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 13
11 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 9
275 Passes 197
71% Pass Accuracy 66%
32 Box Touches 19
30 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Rostov vs Baltika Kaliningrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov edged past Baltika Kaliningrad 2-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Rostov found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Rostov had 57% of the ball to Baltika Kaliningrad's 43%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 1.74 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Baltika Kaliningrad led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rostov and 1.50 for Baltika Kaliningrad.

What was the final score of Rostov vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Rostov 2-1 Baltika Kaliningrad in the Russia - Premier League on 19/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rostov vs Baltika Kaliningrad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Rostov 37%, draw 26%, Baltika Kaliningrad 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rostov) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rostov) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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