Deportivo Pasto 2-1 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 19 May 2025

📅19/05/2025 · 🕒02:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
35%
+3.9pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.8pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.2pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.5pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-4.3pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
0.94/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.89
-2% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
14.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
19.5 Crosses 17.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Once Caldas
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.85 xG 0.92
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
251 Passes 307
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.10.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
31.03.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
30.08.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
14.03.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
23.08.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-0 HT 2-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
23.02.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
2-1
AWAY Once Caldas
0.76 xG 1.14
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
239 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Pasto nicked a narrow win over Once Caldas 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Deportivo Pasto made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 43% of the ball to Once Caldas's 57%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 0.76 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Pasto had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 0.83 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

Deportivo Pasto 2-1 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 19/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 39%, draw 28%, Once Caldas 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
19 May 2025
04:15 Union Magdalena vs America de Cali Analysis →