Once Caldas 2-1 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 15 Oct 2024

📅15/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
34%
3.11
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.51
Over 2.5
32%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.13
No
62%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
42%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.7pp
34%
Draw
29%
+5.0pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.2pp
68%
Under 2.5
62%
+5.1pp
32%
Over 2.5
38%
-5.1pp
38%
BTTS Yes
43%
-4.4pp
62%
BTTS No
57%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.20/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.25
+1% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +29%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
303 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
19.9 Crosses 12.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.91 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
306 Passes 263
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
30.08.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
14.03.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
23.08.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-0 HT 2-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
23.02.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
01.10.2021 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
226 Passes 270
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas edged past Deportivo Pasto 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Once Caldas had 46% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 54%, shots finished 17-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo Pasto led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Once Caldas and 0.67 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?

Once Caldas 2-1 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 41%, draw 34%, Deportivo Pasto 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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