Atletico Nacional 2-1 Envigado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 15 Oct 2024

Atletico Nacional
2-1
Envigado
📅15/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Atletico Nacional vs Envigado Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.82
Over 2.5
40%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
16%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
65%
-11.9pp
29%
Draw
21%
+7.4pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
51%
+9.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
49%
-9.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.7pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Nacional v Envigado — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Envigado EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.48/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.30
+17% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +0%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
384 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 74%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.3
18.7 Crosses 11.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Atletico Nacional vs Envigado Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Envigado
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.58 xG 0.58
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
335 Passes 262
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 7
15 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Envigado Envigado 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
01.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
24.04.2023 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.09.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
16.02.2022 Envigado Envigado 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
04.04.2021 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL

Atletico Nacional 2-1 Envigado — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
2-1
AWAY Envigado
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 7
420 Passes 250
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Envigado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional edged past Envigado 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 60% of the ball to Envigado's 40%, shots finished 16-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.33 for Envigado.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Envigado?

Atletico Nacional 2-1 Envigado in the Colombia - Primera on 15/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Envigado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 53%, draw 29%, Envigado 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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