Envigado 0-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
26%
+10.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
38%
Away Win
47%
-9.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.8pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Envigado EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 51%
+6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
0.91/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.02
+19% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
13.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
12.8 Crosses 15.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Envigado
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.86 xG 1.77
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
245 Passes 361
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
8 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
24.04.2023 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
02.09.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
16.02.2022 Envigado Envigado 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
04.04.2021 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-0 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
04.10.2020 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-2 HT 1-1 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Envigado
0-1
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.03 xG 0.93
53% Ball Possession 47%
2 Total Shots 19
0 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
305 Passes 273
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
7 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Envigado vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional squeezed past Envigado 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Atletico Nacional made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Envigado had 53% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 47%, shots finished 2-19, expected goals 0.03 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Envigado and 2.00 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Envigado vs Atletico Nacional?

Envigado 0-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Envigado vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Envigado 36%, draw 26%, Atletico Nacional 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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