Ajax 1-0 Olympiakos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.51
Over 2.5
50%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.6
No
56%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
5.49
2-3 Goals
47%
2.01
4-5 Goals
18%
2.66
6+ Goals
10%
6.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.49 — our 25% vs market 13.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
62%
-11.6pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.3pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+8.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
36%
+13.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
64%
-13.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-14.9pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+14.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 21%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
3.52/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/1.38
+78% / +120% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +105% / +37%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 82%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
13.6 Crosses 6.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
1-0
AWAY Olympiakos
0.53 xG 0.72
59% Ball Possession 41%
2 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
455 Passes 272
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
8 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Olympiakos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax nicked a narrow win over Olympiakos 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ajax had 59% of the ball to Olympiakos's 41%, shots finished 2-9, expected goals 0.53 to 0.72.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Olympiakos?

Ajax 1-0 Olympiakos in the Friendlies on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Olympiakos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ajax 51%, draw 24%, Olympiakos 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ BTTS No
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