Independiente Medellin 1-1 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
36%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.0pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+6.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 33%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.13/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.23
+4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
16.4 Crosses 13.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Millonarios
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.00 xG 1.65
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
354 Passes 242
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
22.01.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 5-0 HT 3-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.12.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
27.11.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
19.09.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
18.06.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 2-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
21.05.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-1
AWAY Millonarios
0.59 xG 0.35
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
204 Passes 279
64% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 15
6 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin and Millonarios couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 45% of the ball to Millonarios's 55%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 0.59 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente Medellin and 2.00 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

Independiente Medellin 1-1 Millonarios in the Colombia - Primera on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 37%, draw 27%, Millonarios 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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