UTC Cajamarca 2-1 Cusco FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 19 Jul 2024

📅19/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.38
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
28%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
38%
+1.6pp
20%
Draw
26%
-5.7pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+4.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Cusco FC EU Bookmakers 40%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -9%
1.43/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.47
+15% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
396 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 71%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
21.3 Crosses 21.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UTC Cajamarca
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cusco FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.97 xG 1.36
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
205 Passes 282
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.02.2024 Cusco FC Cusco FC 1-1 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
26.06.2023 Cusco FC Cusco FC 2-1 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
27.03.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-0 HT 0-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
13.08.2021 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 2-1 HT 2-0 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
17.02.2020 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 2-1 HT 2-1 Cusco FC Cusco FC PER
08.11.2019 Cusco FC Cusco FC 0-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UTC Cajamarca
2-1
AWAY Cusco FC
1.22 xG 1.38
32% Ball Possession 68%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
155 Passes 415
67% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UTC Cajamarca vs Cusco FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UTC Cajamarca edged past Cusco FC 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 20% / 40%) promised a tight game; UTC Cajamarca found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, UTC Cajamarca had 32% of the ball to Cusco FC's 68%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.22 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, UTC Cajamarca had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for UTC Cajamarca and 0.83 for Cusco FC.

What was the final score of UTC Cajamarca vs Cusco FC?

UTC Cajamarca 2-1 Cusco FC in the Peru - Premier League on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UTC Cajamarca vs Cusco FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a UTC Cajamarca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split UTC Cajamarca 40%, draw 20%, Cusco FC 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (40/20/40) ✗ BTTS No
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