Vasco da Gama 1-1 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Jul 2025

📅19/07/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.54
Over 2.5
46%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.95
6+ Goals
9%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.05
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.15
X/1
19%
4.61
X/2
12%
7.08
X/X
10%
3.84
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
9%
5.89
2/X
8%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
45%
+1.5pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.4pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
61%
-6.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
39%
+6.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.34/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.55
+29% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
326 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 81%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
23.8 Crosses 14.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gremio
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.75 xG 1.09
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
325 Passes 275
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.07.2024 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
14.04.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
04.12.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
06.08.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
11.09.2022 Gremio Gremio 2-1 HT 2-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR2
03.06.2022 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
1-1
AWAY Gremio
1.90 xG 0.99
64% Ball Possession 36%
31 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 2
461 Passes 234
90% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 6
39 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama and Gremio shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Vasco da Gama at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 64% of the ball to Gremio's 36%, shots finished 31-9, expected goals 1.90 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vasco da Gama and 0.83 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Gremio?

Vasco da Gama 1-1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 46%, draw 26%, Gremio 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vasco da Gama), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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