Fortaleza 1-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 19 Jul 2025

Fortaleza
1-1 HT 1-0
Bahia
📅19/07/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Fortaleza vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
32%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.43
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
17%
6.1
X/2
14%
5.39
X/X
13%
4.07
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
13%
3.65
2/X
9%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
34%
+6.2pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.8pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortaleza v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -16%
1.21/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.52
+0% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -34%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
283 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 81%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
17.9 Crosses 18.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Fortaleza vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bahia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 0.85
46% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 Passes 394
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
22.09.2024 Fortaleza Fortaleza 4-1 HT 2-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
14.06.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
22.10.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
03.06.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
15.02.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-3 HT 0-3 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRCDN
19.02.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-1 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BRCDN

Fortaleza 1-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-1
AWAY Bahia
1.94 xG 2.71
35% Ball Possession 65%
15 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
195 Passes 438
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza and Bahia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Fortaleza had 35% of the ball to Bahia's 65%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.94 to 2.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fortaleza and 0.83 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Bahia?

Fortaleza 1-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 19/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 40%, draw 28%, Bahia 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fortaleza), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
19 Jul 2025
23:30 Vasco da Gama vs Gremio Analysis →