Bahia 1-0 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Jun 2024

📅14/06/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
20.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 35% vs market 29.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.56
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
11%
4.03
X/2
10%
7.75
X/X
17%
4.48
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
10%
6.32
2/X
8%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-7.3pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.9pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.44/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.41
-9% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +29%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
23.5 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fortaleza
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.43 xG 1.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
250 Passes 322
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2023 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
03.06.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
15.02.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-3 HT 0-3 Fortaleza Fortaleza BRCDN
19.02.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-1 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BRCDN
10.12.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 2-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
05.09.2021 Bahia Bahia 4-2 HT 1-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Fortaleza
1.43 xG 1.28
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 9
430 Passes 352
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 26
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia edged past Fortaleza 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bahia had 54% of the ball to Fortaleza's 46%, shots finished 12-21, expected goals 1.43 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bahia and 1.67 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Fortaleza?

Bahia 1-0 Fortaleza in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bahia 43%, draw 32%, Fortaleza 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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