Palmeiras 2-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Jun 2024

📅14/06/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.86
Over 2.5
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.62
6+ Goals
9%
14.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 33% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.86
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.7
X/1
16%
3.53
X/2
7%
12.65
X/X
15%
5.4
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
9%
10.7
2/X
6%
18.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-10.7pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.3pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.9pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 18%
-5% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -15%
1.97/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.52
+4% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -8%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
444 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 75%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
25.8 Crosses 18.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.57 xG 0.64
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
372 Passes 269
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.08.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
23.04.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-2 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
27.01.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
08.11.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
07.11.2019 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
27.07.2019 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
2-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.36 xG 0.24
57% Ball Possession 43%
28 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 6
330 Passes 224
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 14
29 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras saw off Vasco da Gama 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Palmeiras had 57% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 43%, shots finished 28-9, expected goals 2.36 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Palmeiras and 0.83 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?

Palmeiras 2-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 52%, draw 27%, Vasco da Gama 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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