Atletico Paranaense 3-1 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 14 Jun 2024

📅14/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.75
6+ Goals
10%
15.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-7.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.6pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 18%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.73/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/2.02
+18% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +69%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
389 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.2 Crosses 9.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Criciuma
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
241 Passes 398
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
23.10.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
21.07.2014 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
14.11.2013 Criciuma Criciuma 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
19.08.2013 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
17.11.2012 Criciuma Criciuma 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR2
18.08.2012 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
3-1
AWAY Criciuma
2.67 xG 1.40
57% Ball Possession 43%
23 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
404 Passes 287
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 9
25 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense beat Criciuma 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 57% of the ball to Criciuma's 43%, shots finished 23-12, expected goals 2.67 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.50 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Criciuma?

Atletico Paranaense 3-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie A on 14/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 56%, draw 24%, Criciuma 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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